Introduction: In the days leading up to the NATO summit, the Biden administration embarked on a comprehensive diplomatic campaign to encourage Turkey to support Sweden’s accession to NATO. This effort was further complicated by the intertwined issue of a potential sale of F-16 fighter jets to Ankara, which had become linked to Sweden’s membership. While the sale is not yet finalized, recent developments indicate progress in addressing the concerns of key opponents, such as Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez. The upcoming meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis carries significant weight, as their ability to assuage Menendez’s concerns may determine the fate of the F-16 sale.
Months of Diplomacy and Engagement: Behind the scenes, extensive diplomacy took place to overcome hurdles to Sweden’s membership in NATO, with particular attention given to Turkey’s opposition. US Ambassador to Turkey Jeff Flake, leveraging his personal relationship with Menendez, played a pivotal role in explaining the senator’s position to Turkish officials. Flake collaborated with Menendez to explore ways to secure his support for the F-16 sale. Furthermore, Flake and US Ambassador to Greece George Tsunis engaged with lawmakers from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and House Foreign Affairs Committee, fostering discussions about potential arms sales to both Greece and Sweden. Turkish officials received a clear message from a bipartisan letter signed by 28 senators, stating that the F-16 sale hinged on Turkey’s cooperation regarding Sweden’s NATO membership.
Engagement with Congress and Foreign Counterparts: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken engaged in conversations with members of Congress, including Menendez, to identify the path to secure a positive outcome for the F-16 sale. Blinken and Biden had separate discussions with Mitsotakis, while Blinken spoke with the Turkish foreign minister multiple times leading up to the summit. These diplomatic efforts aimed to facilitate progress on both Sweden’s NATO bid and the potential sale of F-16s, culminating in an intense diplomatic push during this crucial week.
Biden’s Personal Leadership and Intense Diplomatic Effort: The Biden administration, led by President Joe Biden himself, took an active role in driving the diplomatic efforts. President Biden discussed Stockholm’s NATO membership and the F-16 sale with Erdogan during a phone call. Biden emphasized the importance of moving forward with the sale, underscoring his belief in its significance for the US-Turkey bilateral relationship and the NATO alliance. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan credited President Biden’s personal leadership for the achievements made thus far. The administration sought to strengthen NATO, enhance military capabilities in Greece and Turkey, and facilitate Sweden’s membership within the alliance.
Expectations for the Meeting Between Erdogan and Mitsotakis: The meeting between Erdogan and Mitsotakis carries immense importance as they endeavor to address Menendez’s concerns and gain approval for the F-16 sale. The Biden administration anticipates commitments from both leaders to maintain regional stability, potentially including agreements on respecting each other’s airspace. A joint statement or declaration expressing such commitments could address Menendez’s apprehensions and pave the way for the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey.
Conclusion: The Biden administration’s dedicated and multifaceted diplomatic efforts in the lead-up to the NATO summit have yielded promising results regarding Sweden’s accession to NATO and the potential sale of F-16s to Turkey. While challenges remain, progress has been made in addressing the concerns of key opponents. The upcoming meeting between Erdogan and Mitsotakis is eagerly awaited, as it may provide the final impetus needed to secure approval for the F-16 sale. These developments underscore the administration’s commitment to strengthening NATO and pursuing foreign policy accomplishments on multiple fronts.