U.S. intelligence officials determined that Russian planning is underway for a possible invasion in Ukraine that could begin as soon as early 2022.
Since at least October, Russian military movements near the Ukrainian border have been prompting worries among U.S. and European officials about the possibility that Moscow is preparing to launch a large-scale offensive in Ukraine early next year.
The White House believes Russian President Vladimir Putin hasn’t made up his mind but is preparing his forces for the possibility of an operation — a suggestion the Kremlin has denied.
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According to an unclassified U.S. intelligence analysis obtained by The Washington Post last week, a large-scale offensive could come to include as many as 175,000 Russian forces, including reservists being mobilized by the Russian armed forces.
The analysis stated that some 70,000 Russian forces are already near the border with Ukraine. Though it’s unclear how the analysis arrived at that figure, a major fraction of individuals are likely permanent military personnel stationed at military bases near Russia’s western border and in Crimea, which Russia brutally annexed from Ukraine in 2014.
Some of the forces and materiel, however, have moved toward the Ukrainian border from other places in Russia, including as far away as Siberia.
Janes, a defence intelligence company, has been tracking the movement of Russian military equipment and troops sent east from Siberia since the Spring of this year.
Satellite images offer a partial snapshot of the materiel associated with those forces currently being housed in proximity to Ukraine.
Yelnya
Military analysts have been watching the little Russian city of Yelnya, southeast of Smolensk, for weeks. The 144th Motor Rifle Division of the Russian army has its headquarters in the city, which is not far from the Ukrainian border. However, the division has recently had some visitors.
The satellite photos below show vehicle storage that were created in October at the division’s base. According to Janes Defense, the equipment comprises more than 500 armored vehicles, Iskander road-mobile ballistic missile launchers, artillery, communications, and logistics support.